On zigging and zagging: Does diversification still work?
Okay, about yesterday...
Big stock market drops force financial reporters to crank out the cliches. Back when I did more of this kind of thing, I used to joke with my editors that I should set my word processor to enter a few time-saving stock phrases with just a few keystrokes. Like so:
Alt + Shift + F1: "Investors are taking some money off the table."
Alt + Shift + F2: "Sellers crowded the exits."
Alt + Shift + F3: "Two forces drive the market, fear and greed. Fear was in the driver's seat."
Alt + Shift + F4: "Stocks just went on sale."
Alt + Shift + F5: "A technical correction on strong fundamentals."
Alt + Shift + F6: "It's like somebody somebody blew the dog whistle/snapped their fingers/lit a match."
Alt + Shift + F7: "Although today's drop in the Dow seemed large in terms of points, in percentage terms it was only..."
Today I've been thinking about another cliche we money journalists use a lot: "zig when the market zags." (By "we" I mean, of course, me.) We say this when we're trying to explain the benefits of diversifying your portfolio across lots of different kinds of assets. If you hold shares in a
You do realize you can diversify into investments other than equities, right? And that bond prices go up when equities go down, right?
: 2/28/2007 04:02:00 PM I know that diversification still works. But, and you touched on this key word in your article, it's the correlation that really matters. If you own Home Depot you can't just buy Yahoo and assume you've hedge your bet. You really have to find a buy that has as close to a zero correlation to your portfolio as possible but is still trending up. That way, no matter which way your portfolio goes, you could still make some green. Diversification requires a lot more research and analysis then it used to. Needless to say, with the high volatility in the market, investing in 2007 is not for the faint of heart.
: 2/28/2007 04:05:00 PM By being more adventurous, you have to be willing to take on more risk. Studies have proven that just buying large cap international stocks doesn't pack the same diversification punch as it yet used to. However, adding lower correlated international small caps (See David Herro at Oakmark International Small Cap) and emerging market stocks through a diversified fund or ETF will help over the long run. There is also the emerging area of international real estate.
: 2/28/2007 05:07:00 PM You mention that persons wishing to diversify: "If you want a really low correlation, you'll have to be more adventurous, and should consider assets besides equities."
: 2/28/2007 05:21:00 PM Aside from bonds, which don't seem too adventurous, what assets other than equities are you referring too? Are you proposing that persons invest in real estate, or perhaps an Real Estate Investment Trust or REIT mutual fund? Or do you suggest that persons invest in precious metals such as gold? Though your article is interesting, I wish there was more tangible advice. Thank you In the current environment, (i.e. slowing growth and increasing inflation), three out of four asset classes will be lower--bonds will be killed, stocks lower, and real estate will continue its decline. That leaves only one area with negative correlation--commodities. Consider putting more of your portfolio into commodities for protection. Stagflation may be here.
: 2/28/2007 05:49:00 PM A lot of people over-estimate their risk tolerance; it takes a few serious hits (on paper) to learn how you react emotionally to volatility (vs. intellectually, before it has happened).
: 2/28/2007 07:42:00 PM Diverse porfolia always good for people with moderate risks. But how much of internationa and US stocks you should hold depends with your picks. With so volatile market (specially what happened yesterday!) its hard to keep any international stock!!
: 3/01/2007 01:46:00 AM Call me stupid, but I think you might be missing the author's points. It's fair to assume as some ask that he's aware of the very different kinds of products which one can buy to diversify out of risk, or indd into it. But the point seems to be to reconsider whether your portfolio is actually diversified or just fulll of different equite and in that respect he seems to have done a fine job.
: 3/01/2007 06:01:00 AM I wish all stories on diversification would qualify it by stating they are not talking about long-term investing. Basically, the S&P 500 beats overseas markets in the long term.
: 3/01/2007 08:14:00 AM Buy and hold long term investors should ask themselves, "The market crashed - so what?" Over the long haul they will still make money.
: 3/01/2007 09:44:00 AM Short term buy and sell types should have sold everything when the market was posting all those record highs this month. Then they wait for this 'crash' and buy again. Sell high. Buy low. Radical, right? If an investor in Equity markets cannot sleep well after 3% drop then I guess he/she is in wrong place. It's time to revisit the risk profile. In my view drop like this will test the nerves of diversified investors whether their risk assessment is appropriate or not. In a booming market invesors overestimate their risk appetite and go for higher equity allocation.
: 3/01/2007 10:15:00 AM I agreee that just international large cap with S&P 500 is not enough for diversification. Also it does not hurt to have some bond allocation in AAP. Most journalists continue to report point drops rather than percentages. This is the math illiteracy, and it warps public perceptions.
: 3/01/2007 11:11:00 AM I lived through the 1987 crash. 23% in one day, so 3.5% isn't going to spook me.
: 3/01/2007 12:35:00 PM Don't forget that diversification includes cash and cash equivalents, such as I-Bonds. They help give peace of mind. I appreciate your comments about diversification. My portfolio is 67% rental real estate, 25% stocks and 8%bonds. I invest in market ETF's for the equity markets - 35% S&P500, 35% MSCI EAFE, 18% TSX, 10% Nasdaq, and 2% in the Hang Seng. I sleep pretty well most nights, by reminding myself that I'm in the accumulation phase of life, and market corrections represent buying opportunities. I buy monthly through payroll deduction and rebalance by reallocating the purchase percentages. Occasionally I contribute a lump if I need a bigger rebalance.
: 3/01/2007 02:57:00 PM I would like to get some good quality historical annual return data on those market indexes (indices?) so I can check to see how far my mix has strayed from the efficient frontier for my portfolio. Is there a website where I can find that information? Yahoo is always a good place to start. You can get data for the S&P back to 1950.
: 3/01/2007 04:29:00 PM Diversification is for people that don't know what they are doing -Warren Buffett
: 3/01/2007 10:15:00 PM Gee, I thought this blog was about diversity...but at least I can spell and proof my comments before exposing them to the world. I found the most thought provoking comments to be those of Denis (Houston, TX), and the quotation attributed to Warren Buffet.
: 3/02/2007 07:33:00 AM I simply try to keep an eye on, to me, the most important factor in any long term (more than 10 yrs.) investment program and that is the number of shares that I've been able to aquire, not the value of them this very minute. I admit, it adds to my graying hair, but when I realize the shares themselves become more conservative over time in the Target-Retirement fund, then I simply think of the couple of extra dollars a month that they will be paying each time I pick up a few extra shares each month when the price drops. I also try to remember back at the end of 2002 when no one was predicting the run about to happen that it would have been great to have plunked down a bit extra each month to have grabbed some discounted shares!
: 3/02/2007 09:25:00 AM The other day's global decline in stock prices was a "flight to quality" event. Stock sellers re-invested their proceeds in high credit quality bonds, therefore stocks went down and bonds went up. The best and cheapest equity diversifiers in such cases are money market funds, Treasuries, investment grade munis, CDs and E & I-bonds.
: 3/02/2007 12:08:00 PM I don't diversify, I focus. Have between 5-15 holdings at any one time. Have beaten the S & P every year since Jan 1, 1999. Of course, focusing means that I know my investments quite well, and that I must pay attention, something that does take time. But, the rewards are worth it.
: 3/02/2007 01:16:00 PM Buying an index fund will beat 70-80% of other funds. Why does this strategy work? Though indexing will capture the downturns, it will ALWAYS capture the upswing in prices, and that's the key. Like this past week, people might get out of the market but they don't always get back into the market at the write time. For lazy or risk averse investor, this is probably the best choice.
: 3/02/2007 04:00:00 PM Actually the main reason index funds beat most actively managed funds is because of the low fees. Most actively managed funds average about the same as index funds before fees so naturally, once you subtract their higher fees, most of them underperform.
: 3/02/2007 05:51:00 PM Think about commodity futures (Goldman Sachs Index)as the way to diversify: they have a negative correlation with stocks and bonds over most time horizons. Read Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures.
: 3/03/2007 03:34:00 PM Leon in Waco could be wrong. Bonds go up when interest rates go down.
: 3/04/2007 05:42:00 PM Just pretends it is early in the new year.....
: 3/04/2007 08:31:00 PM I just checked the year to date returns..on all my accounts... Looks like I am up still up 1/2-1% for the year... So last week just knocked me back to January... We just gave back a couple of our recent good months. Good luck beating US Stocks for the long haul. I'm in for the next 30 years at least. (Maybe some private equity buy-outs will even prod Detroit to compete with the Japanese and make some good American cars!) Investors seem to have forgotten the rise in international stocks from september till now.Look for long term returns. There is no road traveled without a little pothole!
: 3/05/2007 08:51:00 PM
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